As we approach the upcoming football weekend, let’s dive into some interesting player props that stand out based on historical performance and matchups. We’ll look at high-probability hits, head-to-head successes, and how defensive rankings might impact outcomes.
High Hit Rate Props
Several props have shown consistent success, hitting at a rate of 60% or higher:
- CeeDee Lamb (Dallas Cowboys) Over 96.5 Receiving Yards: 55.6% hit rate
- Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals) Under 33.5 Rush Yards: 75% hit rate
- Jimmy Horn (Colorado) Over 45.5 Receiving Yards: 77.8% hit rate
- Travis Hunter (Colorado) Over 67.5 Receiving Yards: 77.8% hit rate
- LaJohntay Wester (Colorado) Over 63.5 Receiving Yards: 66.7% hit rate
Perfect Head-to-Head History
Some props have a 100% success rate in head-to-head matchups:
- Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) Over 239.5 Pass Yards against the Arizona Cardinals
- Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis Colts) Over 75.5 Rush Yards against the Houston Texans
- Nico Collins (Houston Texans) Over 70.5 Receiving Yards against the Indianapolis Colts
Matchups Against Notable Defenses
Strong Defensive Matchups (80th percentile or better)
- Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns) faces a tough test against the Dallas Cowboys defense (87th percentile)
- Derek Carr (New Orleans Saints) goes up against the Carolina Panthers defense (100th percentile)
Weak Defensive Matchups (20th percentile or worse)
- Christian Kirk (Jacksonville Jaguars) has a favorable matchup against the Miami Dolphins defense (19th percentile)
- Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) also benefits from the same weak Dolphins defense
Position-Specific Defensive Rankings
- Kyler Murray faces a tough Buffalo Bills defense that ranks in the 77th percentile against quarterbacks
- Jonathan Taylor has a favorable matchup against a Houston Texans run defense in just the 35th percentile
Players Exceeding Their Lines
Several players have season averages above their projected lines for this week:
- CeeDee Lamb (Dallas Cowboys): Averaging 103.3 receiving yards (line is 96.5)
- Jimmy Horn (Colorado): Averaging 47.3 receiving yards (line is 45.5)
- Travis Hunter (Colorado): Averaging 80.1 receiving yards (line is 67.5)
- LaJohntay Wester (Colorado): Averaging 97.3 receiving yards (line is 63.5)
- Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills): Averaging 247.1 passing yards (line is 239.5)
Remember, while these trends and matchups are interesting to consider, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Always approach sports betting responsibly and within your means.